Indonesia’s recent procurement of the Turkish-made short-range ballistic missile has triggered alarmist headlines about arms race vulnerabilities in Southeast Asia. Such fears are yet to be certain. Indonesia has been trying to modernize its military in recent years, investing in new drones, warships, and fighter jets. Between 2023 and 2024, Indonesian Defense Ministry signed contracts with multiple defense contractors–home and abroad–in pursuit of modern weaponry. This includes 12 Turkish-made Anka drones and a fleet of 42 French Rafale fighter jets. The acquisitions are in line with the strategic plan to strengthen Indonesia's defense capabilities, that in turn modernize old-aged equipment. New addition to Indonesia's arsenal–an overblown upgrade–the short-range ballistic missile system, which is the first for the country, as well as the region. The recent arrival of this missile, obtained from Türkiye's Roketsan firm, has sparked media controversy, with some experts fearing that it could trigger a regional arms race.

The KHAN Missile: Limited Capabilities

The KHAN ITBM-600 ballistic missiles have arrived in the country and are currently deployed at the 18th Field Artillery Battalion Headquarters (Yonarmed 18/Buritkang) in Tenggarong, East Kalimantan, where they were first observed in August 2025. The ballistic missile system, mounted on a Tatra 8×8 truck, a road-mobile launcher platform enhances survivability through “shoot-and-scoot” tactics, but the missile’s reach remains confined to short-range targets as the designated implies short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). This missile is designed for precision strikes against high-value targets like bunkers, radar sites, or command centers within a theater of operations with a maximum range up to 280 km at best. Crucially, 280 km is a short-range by modern standards, this is not an intercontinental missile or a weapon that can hit far-off adversaries. Its reach is roughly comparable to extended-range artillery or tactical cruise missiles. The KHAN cannot carry nuclear payloads (Indonesia doesn’t have them anyway), so its destructive power is limited to conventional explosives. It is a notable upgrade for Indonesia’s Army, which previously lacked any ballistic missiles, yet it remains a tactical system with limited scope.

Why East Kalimantan? A Defensive Choice

One curious aspect that raised eyebrows was the deployment location of Indonesia’s KHAN missiles. Rather than stationing this new capability near known flashpoints like the South China Sea or the Malacca Strait, Indonesia placed the first unit in East Kalimantan province on Borneo Island which is inland near the site of Indonesia’s future capital city Nusantara (IKN). Why put a ballistic missile there?

According to defense officials and analysts, this location was chosen for largely defensive and practical reasons, not for power projection. East Kalimantan offers relative safety from any direct enemy attack and sits strategically overlooking important sea lanes in the archipelagic north (such as the Makassar Strait and Sulawesi Sea).

Crucially, it is also home to the planned capital, Nusantara. Basing the missile there sends a clear signal that Indonesia is serious about building a robust defense architecture to safeguard the new seat of government from a range of threat scenarios, including potential long-range precision missile strikes. In other words, the missile is being positioned as a protective deterrent for Indonesia’s own territory and critical infrastructure (like the future capital), rather than as an offensive tool parked on a neighbor’s doorstep, undercuts the idea that it’s meant to threaten other countries.

In fact, the distance from Tenggarong, where the battery is deployed, to Indonesia’s Natuna Islands (at the southern edge of the South China Sea) is over 1,000 km, well beyond the KHAN’s 280 km range. Any Chinese vessels or installations in the disputed Spratly or Paracel Islands lie far outside this missile’s reach. If deterring China’s moves in the South China Sea were Jakarta’s aim, deploying a short-range missile in Borneo is ineffective for that purpose. Likewise, the nearest foreign territory, Malaysian or Philippine land, is several hundred kilometers away. From its current East Kalimantan base, the missile cannot even reach Malaysia’s Sabah state or the southern Philippines, let alone more distant targets. In short, stationing the battery deep in Kalimantan, instead of right on the border or on a forward-deployed islands sends a reassuring message that Indonesia’s posture remains defensive.

The Myth of an Arms Race

Despite the limited reach and defensive posture for Indonesia’s new missile, some media coverage has sounded alarms about a looming arms race in Southeast Asia. The fact that Indonesia is the first in Southeast Asia to field a modern ballistic missile system led to dramatic headlines, with some news outlet pointed out that Indonesia had transformed into a credible long-range strike actor with regional reach. It’s certainly true that Indonesia’s KHAN purchase is unprecedented in recent ASEAN history.

Cautious reactions or scrutiny from neighbors are to be expected whenever one country introduces a new capability. But will this single battery spark an arms race? Instead of amplifying anxieties, regional stakeholders and media commentators should be careful not to ignite panic over Indonesia’s new capability. Mischaracterizing the KHAN missile deployment as a dire threat could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, needlessly eroding trust among ASEAN members.

As we have seen, Indonesia’s missile does not fundamentally alter the balance of power in a way that threatens any specific state. Indonesian leadership has been clear about defense modernization (including this missile) is aimed at deterrence, not domination. One advice to Jakarta, maintain openness about intentions and engaging in defense diplomacy will help avoid “perceptions of undue threat” and keep regional stability in check. This kind of transparency can reassure others that the missiles are meant to protect Indonesia’s own sprawling territory and new capital, rather than to project force abroad.