After Trump's meetings in the Gulf with a ton of investment value, there is a concern that could bring the fraction of GCC collectively. This discourse will explore the future of a Gulf institution within the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, following President Trump's visit to Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Arabia made a giant move when it made the $600 billion investment in the US, a record-breaking since establishing the diplomatic relationship. Focusing on trade, technology, energy, and defense, Trump’s remarks aim to regain control of the region.

Trump's goal is to take advantage of these three countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates) based on their material potential and reduce China’s Influence in the Middle East and Gulf, specifically, over the next decade.

However, what about Saudi Arabia's position in these geopolitical dynamics after several successful diplomatic maneuvers with China? The kingdom has made a pragmatic move recently by capitalizing on US capacity, particularly in the security sector.

The $110bn security deal in arms support, including missile defense and tanks, was a crucial sign by both countries. Mainly when the Saudi's feel that the region is not 100% secure from the threat, particularly from the Houthis.

The Saudis now have a deal for security support from the US for middle and long-term projects, and then the next mission is to secure the trade program. In this context, Saudi Arabia got an import tariff from Trump a month before the Gulf visits.

While the tariffs are minimal, at 10%, Saudi Arabia could use an opportunity to reduce trade pressure.” Notably, the kingdom has some trade deals with China that could be used as another alternative, forcing the US to move to tackle Beijing's presence in the region.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia has a strong bargaining position when foreign direct investment (FDI) is used as an asset. This is mainly through the 2030 Saudi Vision, a robust long-term program, and the US is one of the biggest markets for the investment target.

So, regarding the role of Gulf geopolitics chess, Saudi Arabia plays a gentle game to capitalize on its strategic advantage between China and the United States, which influences the region. However, what about the relationship with other surrounding countries, particularly Iran?

When Saudi Arabia and Iran had a reconciliation deal brokered by China in 2023, it brought tremendous optimism for regional stabilization, at least in the medium term. However, after Trump visited the Gulf, mainly in Saudi Arabia, concerns about the relations between the two countries were raised again.

Even though the US and Iran had a meaningful conversation about the nuclear deal, Saudi Arabia has shown its support. However,  the Islamic Republic is in a tricky position because Iran is highly skeptical about the "Peace” mission brought by Trump.

Therefore, the Saudis must keep concentrating on Persian-Gulf stability after its reconciliation two years ago, instead of continuing to maximize several trade deals with the US currently.

Maintaining the momentum of trust from China and the United States and keeping regional stability interests becomes crucial for Saudi Arabia, particularly by strengthening the sub-region cooperation institution, or in other words, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

A renewed strategic alignment between the United States and the Gulf, focusing on deepening defense, economic, and diplomatic cooperation. His tour, covering Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, coincided with the US-GCC Summit and resulted in major financial and military deals.

Discussions in Qatar centered on military cooperation and regional mediation, particularly in Gaza ceasefire efforts. Qatar's strategic role is underscored by hosting the region's most extensive U.S. Army base.

Trump's trip signals a shift toward transactional diplomacy and shared goals in economic growth, security, and technological leadership. However, Israel’s absence from the itinerary and the uncertain future of Saudi-Israel normalization reflect ongoing regional tensions and evolving U.S. foreign policy priorities.

President Donald Trump concluded a significant visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, securing major arms and business deals along with substantial investment commitments to boost the U.S. economy.

These changes include initiating direct talks with Iran over its nuclear program, engaging with Hamas to release an American-Israeli detainee, and openly opposing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s ongoing war in Gaza.

He also made several bold policy declarations, signaling a preference for diplomacy over military action in dealing with Iran. He was willing to maintain economic pressure and downplayed the urgency of a Saudi-Israel normalization deal, stating it would happen at the kingdom’s own pace.

Since many investment deals have come up in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, there is a question mark. How would the GCC, as an institution, unite and provide solidarity for other members?

The other form of trade cooperation between the organization and the US government was through the US-GCC Chamber in 2014. However, no official collective body of the GCC represents the Gulf region because these three countries are still dominant in economic deals with the US.

Other Gulf countries, such as Oman and Kuwait, had economic cooperation with the US; however, it is not as significant in terms of investment value as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

In other words, these Gulf states still play their role based on their interest capacity. Another concern of the GCC is its policy gaps, particularly in security and conflict resolution geopolitics.

Even in terms of the country's maneuver, they are put in a different perspective. Bahrain is a good example of describing relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords, while some other Gulf states remain reluctant to normalize relations with Israel.

The GCC was not built to play many security and conflict resolution roles. However, as an institution, it has at least made an effort to address this issue through the GCC Security Vision. The GCC still has a limited understanding of terrorist groups' non-transactional issues and does not give the actual point of view of state members.

Trump’s visit would increasingly divert attention from geopolitical and conflict issues while concentrating on trade and investment cooperation. The GCC must reidentify its vision and react to current problems as a unit.

While the GCC was established as a response to the Gulf conflict in 1980, with the hope of resolving the conflict, it has shifted its focus to economy, education, and health. Unfortunately, the GCC is still inconsistent and does not play its institutional role smoothly, as its members are too much in line with their own interests.

GCC needs to do something to extract its potential beyond economic and soft power superiority. Collectively and compactness are the most fundamental principles to running a regional organization well.

The Gulf Institution will always face an increasing lack of shared vision; therefore, the concern of Gulf states' divergence becomes more real and complicated when they lack a regional vision.

Note: The cover image accompanying this article was generated using artificial intelligence and is intended for illustrative purposes only.