Taiwan, Indonesia and the ASEAN Ceiling: The New Southbound Policy at Ten
In this article, Aniello Iannone critically evaluates the ten-year trajectory of Taiwan's New Southbound Policy (NSP), arguing that while economic statecraft has successfully deepened trade, investment, and labor links across Southeast Asia, it has hit an insurmountable political wall. The core structural dilemma lies in the ASEAN consensus mechanism and the universal adherence to the One-China policy, which converts ASEAN centrality—traditionally viewed as regional autonomy—into an institutional barrier that permanently excludes Taipei from multilateral frameworks like RCEP and CPTPP. Examining Indonesia as a prime case study, Aniello demonstrates how Jakarta leverages its non-aligned multi-polarity (such as joining BRICS while pursuing OECD membership) to maintain strong economic ties with Taiwan while remaining one of the primary guarantors of Taipei's diplomatic invisibility.
